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Immigrants and Violent Crime: Separating Fact From Fiction
Incendiary and alarmist views about immigration and violent crime can skew witness statements and may motivate some arrests and charges.
August 06, 2010 /Hispanic PR News/ -- Columnist James Alan Fox recently entered the next installment in a debate on illegal immigration and crime. The New York Times ran a story citing Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) crime statistics indicating that violent crime in Arizona has actually dropped since 2000. The implication is that illegal immigration in the state has not resulted in an increase in violent crime. The paper also ran quotes from researchers challenging the modern myth of lawless illegals, claiming that immigrants actually tend to have lower rates of criminal behavior.
Thereafter, blogger Tom Maguire posted about what he called a misleading "statistical cover-up" of sorts. Maguire claimed that use of statewide figures obscures underlying violent crime increases outside of the large metropolitan areas, especially rural communities near the Mexican border. Using state statistics from the FBI for the years 2000 and 2008, Maguire claimed that while the violent crime rate dropped in the metropolitan areas, it rose sharply in non-metropolitan cities and counties, areas of alleged illegal immigration concentration.
Deciphering the Data: Reading Beyond the Numbers
Fox says not so fast; examining the data for only the years 2000 and 2008 does not eliminate the possibility that the sharp increase was the result of an aberration at either end of the year. In fact, he observes, looking at data from all the years between 1999 and 2008, one sees that the 2000 rate of violent crime for nonmetropolitan counties was an outlier. That is, while 2000 saw a low crime level, the trend in violent crime for nonmetropolitan counties from 1999 through 2008 was essentially flat.
Moreover, Fox says, substantial population drops between 2005 and 2006 clearly indicate some sort of artificial shift in method or source of population estimation or definition of geography. Given the break in population estimates between 2005 and 2006, only sub-state rate calculations and trends since 2006 are valid and interpretable. Such data, while insufficient for making substantial trend conclusions, does not suggest a consistent pattern of change.
Incendiary and alarmist views about immigration and violent crime can skew witness statements and may motivate some arrests and charges. Those in custody or who have already been charged should contact a lawyer to protect their constitutional rights in plea negotiations or at trial.
Article provided by Beresky & Fish, P.C.
Visit us at www.bereskyandfish.com
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